![The butterfly effect: A small change, like a butterfly flapping its wings, can lead to massive, unpredictable outcomes, like a hurricane, due to complex systems. [Image: Grok (xAI)]](/images/Images/chaos-theory-grok600.jpg "The butterfly effect: A small change, like a butterfly flapping its wings, can lead to massive, unpredictable outcomes, like a hurricane, due to complex systems. [Image: Grok (xAI)]")
The predictability horizon
As deterministic models faltered, Sir James Lighthill (1986) urged scientists to embrace chaos in 1986. He argued that Newtonian dynamics overstated predictability, noting that even simple systems have a “predictability horizon”—a limit beyond which forecasts fail (p. 35).
This predictability horizon varies: milliseconds for electrical circuits, one to two weeks for weather, and millions of years for the solar system (Lighthill, 1986). Within the predictability window, accuracy is possible. The solar system’s vast horizon lets us perceive it as stable, confidently tracking planetary paths. But from an eternal perspective—where human history is a fleeting moment—the solar system is dynamic, and its future forms are unknowable (Strogatz, 2015).
Chaos theory aligns with the Gestalt view that a whole exceeds its parts and systems theory’s focus on interconnectedness (Stevenson, 2010). In management, it depicts organizations as unpredictable due to internal relationships—a late email or miscommunication can spark unexpected shifts.